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The bitcoin price has plunged under $20,000 per bitcoin, down from almost $70,000 late last year, while ethereum and other top ten cryptocurrencies BNB
Now, following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report this week that sent the bitcoin price sharply lower, all eyes have turned to the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, due on Thursday, that some think will “decide the fate of this market.”
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“CPI next week will decide the fate of this market,” one influential trading analyst posted to Twitter after data showed U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in September, down from 315,000 in August but higher than an anticipated 255,000.
“With this jobs report it seems clear we are on course for another significant hike from the Fed, with the market pricing in a 75 [basis point] rise in interest rates at its next meeting,” said Paul Craig, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors, told Coindesk.
September CPI is predicted to have slowed slightly from the month before, forecast to drop to 8.1% year-on-year. A larger-than-expected slow down in price rises could mean the Fed eases up on its program of interest rate hikes.
The last U.S. CPI reading of 8.3% showed prices were still climbing despite the Fed embarking on a series of historic interest rate hikes this year, torpedoing stock markets and crypto prices.
“Worries are firing in from all fronts following the latest robust snapshot on the U.S. labour market,” Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at brokerage Hargreaves Lansdown, said via email. “Investors are simultaneously fretting that the fall in the pace of hirings indicates a slowing economy, but also that the better than expected data shows that the jobs markets hasn’t slowed enough to stop the Fed from hiking rates aggressively.”
The bitcoin and crypto market, after touching $3 trillion last year, has lost a staggering $2 trillion in under 12 months in what’s been branded the latest crypto winter. The crypto market has previously spun on cycles of boom and bust with the last crypto winter lasting through 2018 until late 2020. This week, one crypto founder predicted how long this latest crypto winter could last.
“We will need to see some consistent economic slowing figures before the Fed-pivot trade is realistically in play,” William Marsters, senior sales trader at Saxo, said in an emailed note. “CPI numbers and FOMC minutes are out next week which will continue to build the picture for the outlook.”
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Expectations had built this week that the Federal Reserve could be about to swing dovish in its flight against inflation with one closely-watched analyst predicting the price of bitcoin and ethereum could be about to “outperform most major assets.”
However, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said this week that the central bank has “more work to do.”
“Until I see some evidence that underlying inflation has solidly peaked and is hopefully headed back down, I’m not ready to declare a pause,” Kashkari said.